New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

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Active sub-markets

Market context

New York and Miami meet tonight at loanDepot park, with the market close to a coin flip at 49% YES on the Mets. That pricing fits a series-level picture of two evenly matched clubs: ESPN lists both at 22-28, with the Mets 11-15 on the road and the Marlins 15-14 at home. New York has had the marginally better power output on the season, but Miami has drawn more walks and owns a higher on-base percentage, which helps explain why neither side has separated much in the head-to-head pricing.

Recent form does not point strongly one way either. ESPN shows the Mets coming in on a one-game win streak and the Marlins on a two-game skid, while StatMuse’s recent head-to-head log shows Miami taking the last completed meeting 4-0 in September. That mix is typical of a near-50% market: the book is not asking traders to lean heavily on standings alone, but on how tonight’s specific pitching and lineup edges land.

The main catalysts are the confirmed starter assignments, any late scratches, and whether either side rests a regular after a night game. The game is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET, so line movement before first pitch will likely be driven by batting-order news and bullpen availability rather than longer-term team trends. MLB’s current game listing and ESPN’s matchup page are the cleanest references for final status and line-up context as lineups are posted.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.