Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Minnesota Twins travel to Detroit on 11 June for a midweek matchup against the Tigers, with first pitch at 1:10pm ET. The 0% implied probability reflects either extremely thin liquidity in this market or a technical issue with odds display, as both teams will field competitive rosters in a regular-season contest where either outcome remains genuinely possible. This probability level is inconsistent with historical norms for MLB games between major-league opponents.

The Twins and Tigers have maintained relatively balanced head-to-head records in recent seasons, with neither club holding decisive dominance. When individual regular-season games between established MLB franchises show extreme probability skew—particularly readings near 0% or 100%—traders typically encounter either liquidity constraints in smaller markets or data synchronisation delays rather than genuine certainty about outcomes. Historical precedent suggests such extreme readings often correct as trading activity increases.

Key variables for this fixture include starting pitcher assignments, which typically drive meaningful probability shifts in baseball markets. Recent injury reports, bullpen availability, and weather conditions at Comerica Park merit monitoring through to game time. The settlement window extends to 18 June, providing buffer for any postponement; traders should confirm final lineups and weather forecasts within 24 hours of first pitch, as these factors frequently prompt material repricing in baseball prediction markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.