MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)

Platform comparison

Market context

The automated ball-strike challenge system, now in its first full regular season, has reshaped how teams approach umpire decisions, with the New York Yankees currently leading the league in challenge success rate at 58.7% as of 8 July[8]. This market, priced at 36% YES, hinges on which team will finish 2026 with the highest ABS challenge won%, a metric that has proven volatile since its debut in spring training 2025, where success rates hovered around 52.2% across 60% of games[2].

Historically, challenge success has been dominated by catchers, who overturned 60% of calls in spring training, while pitchers and batters trailed at 56% and 42% respectively[3]. The Yankees’ early lead mirrors the 2025 Triple-A trend where top teams maintained consistent overturn rates, but regular-season variance remains high, with nearly 3,000 challenges issued by May 2026 yielding a 54% success rate—essentially a coin flip[10]. This suggests the current 36% probability is not overstated, given the system’s experimental nature and the potential for mid-season adjustments.

Traders should monitor weekly ABS tracker updates from ESPN, which now include team and player rankings, and watch for any MLB announcements regarding rule tweaks or zone recalibrations[8]. The Mets (49.6%) and Phillies (48.6%) are close contenders, but the Yankees’ advantage may erode if catchers on other teams improve their overturn rates, as seen in spring training where catchers led all positions[3]. With the settlement window ending 11 October 2026, the next two months will be critical in determining whether the Yankees can maintain their lead or if a new team emerges as the top challenger.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.