Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the New York Yankees tonight at Yankee Stadium in a 7:05pm ET MLB clash where the Tigers hold a 44% crowd-implied chance to win. Over the last 24 hours, the moneyline has shifted slightly to favour New York at -134, while the combined run total is set at 7.5, with the under favoured at -104. The Tigers, sitting at 35-49 and 12-28 away, are the clear underdogs against the 48-35 Yankees who boast a 22-15 home record.

Historically, road teams with sub-40 win percentages playing against top-tier home squads in June rarely exceed 45% win probability, mirroring the current 44% pricing. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that when a team like the Tigers (12-28 away) faces a dominant home side like the Yankees (22-15 home), the market typically corrects to 40-42% by game time, suggesting the current 44% may be slightly inflated before the final pitcher announcement.

Traders must monitor Casey Mize’s status, as he aims to bounce back from a six-K start last time out against this Yankees lineup, and the official starting pitcher confirmations scheduled for 6:00pm ET. A recent MLB.com preview notes Mize’s struggle to keep his front shoulder in position, which could be a critical dependency for the Tigers’ success. Additionally, watch for any late weather updates at Yankee Stadium, as rain delays could postpone the game and keep the market open until completion, altering the immediate settlement timeline.

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Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.