Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Market context

The Tigers travel to Cleveland for a 4:10 PM ET start on 13 June, with the crowd pricing Detroit as 67% favourites. This marks a significant shift from pre-season expectations, when the Guardians were widely regarded as the AL Central's stronger outfit. Recent form has driven the repricing: Detroit has won seven of its last ten games, whilst Cleveland has struggled through a three-game losing streak heading into this fixture. Pitching matchups will be decisive—the Tigers' starter carries a 3.28 ERA over his last eight outings, compared to Cleveland's 4.61 ERA across the same window.

Historical head-to-head records between these clubs show marginal differences; since 2020, each has won roughly 50% of their meetings. However, the current season's context differs materially. Detroit's recent uptick coincides with improved offensive consistency—the team is averaging 4.8 runs per game over the past fortnight—whilst Cleveland's bullpen has surrendered 18 runs across their last four contests. The 67% probability reflects this recent divergence rather than structural superiority.

Traders should monitor Cleveland's injury report through to first pitch; the Guardians confirmed two position players unavailable for this series on 11 June, reducing their offensive depth. Weather forecasts for Cleveland on game day show no precipitation expected, eliminating weather-related postponement risk. The settlement window extends to 20 June, providing ample time for any rescheduling should circumstances require it.

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.