Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Baltimore Orioles on 24 May at 1:35 PM ET, with the crowd-implied probability sitting at 87% for a Tigers victory. This represents a substantial consensus favouring Detroit, though the settlement window extends to 31 May, allowing for postponements or rescheduling should weather intervene during the spring baseball calendar.

Detroit's recent form and roster composition provide the foundation for this pronounced market lean. The Tigers have established themselves as a competitive AL Central side, whilst Baltimore has struggled with consistency through the early season. Historical matchups between these clubs over the past two seasons show Detroit winning roughly 60% of regular-season encounters, which aligns reasonably with the current 87% probability when accounting for home-field advantage and pitching matchups. The Orioles' record against comparable opponents this May has been uneven, with several losses to teams ranked below Detroit in offensive metrics.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements in the 48 hours before game time, as rotation changes or injury updates could shift the probability materially. Weather forecasts for Detroit on 24 May warrant attention given the settlement window's postponement clause. Any late-breaking roster news—particularly regarding key Tigers position players or Baltimore's bullpen availability—typically moves these markets by 3–5 percentage points in either direction. The 87% reading suggests the market has already priced in Detroit's baseline advantages, leaving limited room for further movement absent significant new information.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.