Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Rockies travel to Wrigley Field on 15 June for an evening matchup against the Cubs, with the 38% implied probability favouring Chicago. Recent form has shifted the market's assessment: Colorado enters on a three-game winning streak, whilst the Cubs have dropped two of their last three contests. The Cubs' bullpen has been particularly vulnerable over the past fortnight, posting a 5.12 ERA in June relief appearances, which could prove decisive in a close game at a venue where run-scoring typically favours the home side.

Historical matchups between these franchises offer limited predictive power for single-game outcomes, though the Cubs hold a marginal edge in head-to-head records over the past five seasons. More relevant is the Rockies' road performance this season: they've won 42% of away games, materially below their home record of 54%, suggesting the Cubs' home-field advantage carries genuine weight. The current probability reflects this structural disadvantage for Colorado, though not overwhelmingly.

Traders should monitor lineup confirmations released 24 hours before first pitch, particularly injury status for the Rockies' outfield and the Cubs' catching depth. Weather conditions at Wrigley—wind direction and temperature—historically influence scoring patterns; forecasts currently show mild conditions with minimal wind. Starting pitcher matchups will be confirmed by both teams by 14 June; any late rotation adjustments could shift market sentiment, especially if either side deploys unexpected bullpen usage patterns from recent games.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.