Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
62% | 38% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
62% | 38% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 62% |
| O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| NRFI | 38% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 35% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 15% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 8% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
Market consensus: 62% chance of cincinnati reds vs. milwaukee brewers. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers, scheduled for July 2 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $351K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers on Prediction Today
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