LoL: Team Secret vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Secret and Karmine Corp are set to face off in the League of Legends Lower Bracket semifinal at the Esports World Cup Group B, with the match scheduled to begin today at 9:40 AM ET. The crowd-implied probability of Team Secret winning sits at 0%, reflecting a near-total consensus favouring Karmine Corp, who recently secured a decisive 4–0 victory over Geekay Esports in the same tournament, with dralii earning MVP honours for a 7.4 rating[1].

Historically, such extreme probabilities in lower-bracket esports matches often signal a genuine skill gap rather than market inefficiency, particularly when one side has already demonstrated dominant form in the event. Karmine Corp’s clean sweep against Geekay, combined with their established roster strength in European League of Legends, mirrors past cases where lower-bracket contenders with recent high-margin wins went on to eliminate underdogs with minimal resistance, making the 0% figure a rational reflection of on-paper disparity rather than an outlier.

Traders should monitor the official Esports World Cup schedule for any delays or cancellations, as a match not played or resolved beyond seven days would trigger a 50–50 settlement. With the settlement window closing on 15 July 2026 at 19:55 UTC, the primary catalyst is simply the match’s completion; no roster changes or external announcements are currently pending, and the outcome hinges entirely on in-game performance once the game begins[1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.