LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shopify Rebellion beat Disguised 2-0 in the LCS Spring regular season match, so the market’s 100% YES price is already aligned with the reported result. That leaves limited live uncertainty unless there is a reporting correction, an official replay decision, or an unusual settlement issue around whether the series was completed and authenticated by the listed esports results sources.

The broader frame is straightforward: this was a best-of-three between two teams with similar spring records, and Shopify Rebellion had already held the head-to-head edge coming in. Pre-match listings on Strafe and Sofascore both pointed to the same scheduled series, and the available head-to-head data showed Shopify Rebellion had won the previous meetings as well. In a spot like this, once a 2-0 result is posted consistently across match trackers, the probability is usually driven less by performance analysis and more by whether the result is finalised cleanly.

What traders still watch now is official confirmation from the standard results sources used for settlement, especially if the series was affected by delays, pauses, or any late administrative change. Polymarket’s market description says completed but forfeited clinchers still count, while a cancellation, tie, or excessive delay would trigger a 50-50 outcome, so the key catalyst is not the on-stage scoreline but whether the match is formally accepted as complete. If there were any post-match corrections from LCS or the results database, that would be the only material development.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.