Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 85% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 85% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 59% |
| Match Winner | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Game 1 Winner | 52% |
| Game 2 Winner | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 33% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) | 24% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 13% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 13% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 9% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 9% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 85% probability to lol: movistar koi vs natus vincere (bo3) - lec regular season. This market refers to the LoL match between Movistar KOI and Natus Vincere in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 16 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Mo…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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