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LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 87% Game 1 Winner 76% Game 2 Winner 75% Game 3 Winner 75% Volume: $110K Liquidity: $820K Closes: 19 Oct 2026
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LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
87% 13% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
87% 13% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner87%
Game 1 Winner76%
Game 2 Winner75%
Game 3 Winner75%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs MVK Esports (+1.5)75%
Game 4 Winner65%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?61%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?60%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?60%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?56%
O/U 3.5 Games55%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?47%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?47%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?47%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs MVK Esports (+2.5)46%
O/U 4.5 Games19%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 87% probability to lol: karmine corp vs mvk esports (bo5) - worlds play-in. This market refers to the LoL Grand Final match between Karmine Corp and MVK Esports in the Worlds Play-In, initially scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Karmin…

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Karmine Corp vs MVK Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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