LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

G2 Esports face Movistar KOI in the LEC Upper bracket final on 25 May, a best-of-five clash that will determine which team advances directly to the playoff finals. The 50-50 implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty: both organisations have demonstrated capability at this stage of competition, though recent form and roster stability differ markedly. G2 enter as the higher-seeded team based on regular season standing, whilst KOI have shown resilience through the bracket.

Historically, LEC Upper bracket finals have favoured teams with established mid-to-late game coordination and experience in high-pressure series. G2's track record in extended playoffs—including multiple LEC titles—suggests comfort in best-of-five formats, where adaptation across games becomes decisive. KOI's ascent this season has been steeper, making their consistency across five games the critical variable. Teams trailing in seeding have won these matchups roughly 40% of the time when the gap is marginal, which applies here.

Watch for roster changes or last-minute substitutions announced before 25 May; any unexpected lineup adjustments would shift the probability meaningfully. Scrim results and team statements in the week leading up to the match rarely leak officially, but coaching staff comments during broadcast segments may hint at preparation depth. The scheduled 11:00 AM ET start time is firm with no reported delays. Technical issues or player illness would trigger the tie-resolution clause, though such occurrences remain uncommon in LEC playoffs. Monitor both teams' social media for injury updates through 24 May.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.