Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
66% | 34% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
66% | 34% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 59% |
| Match Winner | 57% |
| Game 1 Winner | 56% |
| Game 2 Winner | 56% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 53% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 40% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 37% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 37% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 33% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 33% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 32% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 32% |
| Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 32% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) | 22% |
Market context
The LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season prediction market currently prices this outcome at 66% YES. This market refers to the LoL match between FlyQuest and LYON in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 25 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win the match…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season on Prediction Today
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