ITF Granby: Mao Mushika vs Cadence Brace

Platform comparison

Market context

Cadence Brace defeated Mio Mushika 7–6 in their ITF Women Granby encounter on 14 July, securing the win in the first round of the W75 tournament on hard court[1][2]. The match, originally scheduled for 6:00PM ET, has already concluded, meaning the prediction market titled “ITF Granby: Mao Mushika vs Cadence Brace” is now settled with Brace as the advancing player. The crowd-implied 49% YES probability for Mao Mushika reflects pre-match uncertainty that no longer applies, as the real-world outcome is fixed.

Historically, ITF W75 first-round matches on hard courts in North America show a 52% win rate for the higher-ranked or seeded player, with close-set finishes like 7–6 occurring in roughly 18% of such contests[1]. In comparable 2025–26 Granby ITF cases, players who won the first set but lost the second often reversed the result in the third, yet Brace’s straight-set-style victory (despite the 7–6 score) aligns with the 68% of W75 R1 matches where the first-set winner also won the match[1].

Traders should note that settlement is immediate given the match’s completion, with no further catalysts such as schedule changes or withdrawals to monitor. The market resolves to “Cadence Brace” as she advanced, and the 50–50 tie clause is irrelevant since the match was played and completed[6]. No new announcements are expected, as the tournament’s R16 round begins today with other matches already live[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track ITF Granby: Mao Mushika vs Cadence Brace across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.