Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Platform comparison

Market context

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro has already defeated Dayana Yastremska at Wimbledon, securing a 6-1, 2-6, 6-3 victory in the third round and reaching her first Grand Slam fourth round[1][3]. The market’s 0% YES probability for Yastremska advancing is not a speculative forecast but a reflection of this completed real-world outcome; the match has been played, and the result is settled.

Historically, prediction markets that retain live probabilities after a match concludes typically collapse to zero once the official result is confirmed, mirroring how similar tennis markets resolved after decisive Grand Slam exits in 2024 and 2025[2]. Traders should watch for any official WTA or Wimbledon announcements confirming the match status, though the scoreline is already widely reported across major tennis outlets[1]. No further catalysts are expected, as the settlement is determined by the existing result, not future events.

With the settlement window ending in July 2026, the market’s resolution is fixed: Bouzas Maneiro advances, and Yastremska does not. The 0% probability aligns precisely with the factual record, leaving no ambiguity for traders to interpret.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.