Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri | 0% |
| Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Palermo: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer Ruggeri. This market refers to the tennis match between Amarissa Kiara Toth and Jennifer Ruggeri in the Palermo, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Amarissa Kia…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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