National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic

Platform comparison

Market context

Loïs Boisson and Antonia Ružić are still the scheduled first-round pairing in Toronto, with multiple scoreboards listing the match for 2 August on outdoor hard courts at Sobeys Stadium, though live listings have shown slightly different local start times. The market’s 73% crowd-implied side lines up with the pre-match read that Ružić enters as the more established hard-court player, while Boisson has been priced as the outsider after qualifying into the main draw and carrying a much lower ranking. [1][2][8]

The probability is best read against a fairly thin head-to-head and modest sample size: this is the first meeting between them, so traders are leaning on ranking, recent form, and surface records rather than any direct matchup history. Ružić is listed around WTA No. 55, versus Boisson near No. 292, and recent previews have repeatedly framed Ružić as the cleaner favourite despite neither player arriving with standout momentum. That makes the current price look more like a standard favourite’s number than a strong signal of one-way confidence. [2][5][7][11]

The main catalysts are operational rather than structural: official order-of-play confirmation, any court change or delay at the National Bank Open, and whether the match actually gets under way within the settlement window. Because the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner, a weather or scheduling backlog matters as much as performance information. As of the latest listings, the match remains on the draw and on live schedules, with no reported winner, so the next move is likely to come from tournament scheduling updates rather than fresh form data. [1][3][6][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Lois Boisson vs Antonia Ruzic across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.