Livesport Prague Open: Ayla Aksu vs Sofia Costoulas

Platform comparison

Market context

Ayla Aksu has already defeated Sofia Costoulas in their first-round match at the Livesport Prague Open, securing a 2–1 victory with scores of 2–6, 6–3, 6–4 in today’s 16:10 hard-court contest [1]. The match, originally scheduled for 20 July 2026, was played and completed, meaning Aksu has advanced as the market’s designated winner. The 100% YES crowd-implied probability now reflects a settled outcome rather than a forecast, as the real-world event has concluded with Aksu progressing.

Historically, prediction markets on completed tennis matches that resolve to a specific player advance converge to 100% once the result is confirmed, with no further volatility unless administrative errors occur. Comparable cases from WTA tournaments show that once a match is officially recorded and the winner advances, markets settle immediately without delay, rendering the 50-50 cancellation clause irrelevant in this instance [1].

Traders should monitor the official WTA tournament page for any post-match appeals or disqualifications, though such events are rare in standard first-round contests. No schedule dependencies remain, as the match is complete, and no further announcements are expected to alter the outcome. The settlement window ending in 2026 is effectively moot given the match’s resolution, and the market will resolve to ‘Ayla Aksu’ per its terms [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Livesport Prague Open: Ayla Aksu vs Sofia Costoulas across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.