Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
| Match Winner | 100% Team Vitality | 0% Dragon Ranger Gaming |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% Team Vitality | 0% Dragon Ranger Gaming |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% Team Vitality | 0% Dragon Ranger Gaming |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) | 100% Team Vitality | 0% Dragon Ranger Gaming |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+4.5) | 100% Team Vitality | 0% Dragon Ranger Gaming |
Market context
Team Vitality face Dragon Ranger Gaming in the opening round of VCT Masters London on 6 June, a best-of-three fixture that determines early positioning in the group stage. The match is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET, with settlement closing at 10:30 PM the same day. No material changes to fixture status have emerged in the past 48 hours; both organisations have confirmed participation in the event.
The 100% implied probability reflects Vitality's established standing within professional Valorant's upper tier. Vitality have consistently qualified for international Masters events and maintain roster stability with players who have competed at previous international tournaments. Dragon Ranger Gaming, by contrast, represent a lower-seeded regional qualification pathway. Historical precedent suggests that when seeding disparities of this magnitude appear in group-stage fixtures, the favoured team converts at rates exceeding 90%, though upsets do materialise when preparation gaps or meta shifts favour the underdog's preparation.
Traders should monitor VCT official communications through 5 June for any schedule adjustments or roster changes, particularly given the compressed timeline before settlement. The seven-day cancellation clause provides a buffer, but fixture confirmations typically arrive 24–48 hours prior. Equipment or travel issues affecting either team would trigger immediate updates from Riot Games' broadcast channels. Current venue logistics for London remain stable with no reported disruptions to the Masters event infrastructure.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?
- Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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