Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Karmine Corp (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Karmine Corp (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Karmine Corp (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Karmine Corp (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 91% |
| Match Winner | 61% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-7.5) vs NRG (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 49% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 48% |
| Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 27% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 26% |
| Map 2 Winner | 7% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs Karmine Corp (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-8.5) vs Karmine Corp (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Karmine Corp (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Karmine Corp (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: nrg vs karmine corp (bo3) - esports world cup group b. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between NRG and Karmine Corp in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for July 6 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We track Valorant: NRG vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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