Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 99% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 99% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 60% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 48% |
| Match Winner | 38% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 26% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-7.5) vs Gentle Mates (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-8.5) vs Gentle Mates (+8.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-9.5) vs Gentle Mates (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: gentle mates vs team vitality (bo3) - vct emea group alpha stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Gentle Mates and Team Vitality in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 29 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
We track Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT … on Prediction Today
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