Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FS (-1.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FULL SENSE (-2.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: RRQ (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
FULL SENSE and Rex Regum Qeon are due in VCT Pacific Stage 2 Group Alpha, and the market sitting at 0% YES looks out of line with the match actually being on the board rather than cancelled or postponed. Public match pages still list the series as a best-of-three on 1 August, with the desk prediction not yet published, so the immediate question is whether the game starts cleanly and reaches a winner within the settlement window.[1][7]
The recent form case is straightforward but not decisive on its own: STADIO’s connected sample shows FULL SENSE at 1-4 and RRQ at 0-5, while the same page records RRQ leading the head-to-head 1-0 in the most recent meeting, a 2-1 series in April.[1] Other match trackers disagree on the broader historical split, with Strafe and EGamersWorld both describing a two-match sample that is level at 1-1, which underlines how much weight traders should place on the most recent BO3 rather than a shallow aggregate.[7][10]
The live catalysts are schedule integrity, roster confirmation, and map veto context. If the series begins on time, the market should be driven mainly by whether RRQ can convert their recent edge in the matchup into another series win, especially after that April 2-1 result, while FULL SENSE’s path depends on dragging the veto into more comfortable maps.[1][4] The main binary risk remains a late change to the published schedule or an incomplete match, because that is what would push settlement away from a normal winner call and into the market’s fallback rules.[7]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) - VCT P… on Prediction Today
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