Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega

Platform comparison

Market context

100 Thieves and Sentinels were due to meet in a best-of-three at VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega, and the main change in the last 24–48 hours is that the match has reached its scheduled window with market pricing still pinned at 0% YES, which usually signals either no completed result yet or a heavily one-sided expectation being reflected elsewhere. The settlement rules are also important here: the market only resolves to 100 Thieves or Sentinels on a completed match outcome, while a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days pushes it to 50-50.[1]

The historical frame favours Sentinels, who have dominated the head-to-head across prior meetings, with one match tracker listing 15 Sentinels wins to 4 for 100 Thieves over 19 meetings, including a 2-0 Sentinels win in their most recent meeting on 19 April 2026.[6][8] That said, recent form snapshots have pointed the other way: Strafe’s match page has 100 Thieves on a five-match winning streak and rated above Sentinels in its own standings feed, while community prediction shares on the same fixture have leaned towards 100 Thieves.[6][8] For market reading, that mix matters because a historic edge can coexist with a short-term form shift, and the spread between those two often drives late movement.

Traders should watch for any official VCT scheduling update, as the listing has appeared across multiple match feeds with slightly different timestamps, which can matter if the series slips, restarts, or is treated as no-contest.[3][6][12] The other key dependency is whether the series is actually completed in full, since this market’s outcome hinges on the match result and not just who leads at any stage; Polymarket’s contract language also makes clear that special settlement rules apply if Map 3 or the match is interrupted.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.