UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Daniil Donchenko, a seasoned welterweight with a 13-2 record, faces Theodor Berggren, an 8-3 debutant who replaced an injured Gustafsson, in a UFC Baku prelims bout tonight at 2:40 pm local time in Baku[1][8]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for Berggren winning reflects his status as a late, unproven replacement against a fighter who has won his last two UFC bouts by decision and TKO[1][6]. This extreme skew mirrors historical cases where late-call replacement fighters, particularly those with fewer professional bouts and no UFC experience, face established opponents with superior recent form; in such scenarios, the market typically assigns negligible win probability to the underdog, often below 5%, as seen in similar welterweight prelims where replacements lost by TKO or decision[2][3].

Traders should monitor the official UFC broadcast for the fight’s start time and any pre-fight medical announcements, as Berggren’s late entry may indicate undisclosed fitness concerns or limited preparation[8]. The primary catalyst is the fight outcome itself, which will resolve the market by 3:59 am UTC on June 28, with Donchenko’s -500 odds implying an 80% win probability and Berggren’s +380 odds a 20% chance[2]. Recent coverage from The Stats Zone and RotoWire confirms Donchenko as the clear favourite, with predictions favouring a TKO win, while Fanatics Markets has already closed the market with Donchenko declared the winner[1][5]. No further schedule changes are expected, as no upcoming fights are announced for either fighter beyond this bout[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.