UFC Fight Night: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Market context

Steven Asplund’s fight with Guilherme Pat is priced as a one-sided heavyweight bout, and that has not changed materially in the latest market reads. Asplund is trading around the low-70s on prediction platforms and roughly a -275 to -305 favourite with bookmakers, while Pat sits in the high-20s to low-30s range, which is consistent with the crowd-implied 100% YES position leaning heavily towards Asplund.[2][7][13]

That profile fits the broader pre-fight pattern: bookmakers have kept Asplund ahead across the board, with multiple shops showing him in the -290 to -325 range and Pat between about +230 and +270.[2][5][12] Comparable fight markets with this kind of pricing usually reflect either a clear stylistic edge or a strong finish expectation, and one model-based preview also points to Asplund while projecting a relatively short contest rather than a cautious decision.[1][4][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are official UFC confirmation that the bout remains on the main card, any late weigh-in or medical issues, and whether the fight is shifted, cancelled, or ruled a no contest before the settlement window closes.[10][13] Market movement is likely to stay anchored to the fight-week information set unless there is an injury report, a card reshuffle, or a sharp adjustment in the UFC’s published bout status, because resolution depends only on the official result from the promotion.[10][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Main Card) across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.