UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card)

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Market context

The underlying event is a middleweight bout between Ikram Aliskerov and Brunno Ferreira at UFC Baku in Azerbaijan, scheduled for tonight, but the fight has been cancelled as Aliskerov pulled out just before the event. This withdrawal means the market cannot resolve to a winner from this specific contest, rendering the current 100% YES probability for Aliskerov factually impossible given the official cancellation.

Historical precedents for cancelled UFC bouts show that markets tied to a specific fight night typically default to a 50-50 outcome or become void when the contest does not occur, as seen in previous instances where fighters withdrew due to injury or illness. The resolution clause explicitly states that if the fight is ruled a No Contest or not scored, the market resolves "50-50," which aligns with the official withdrawal reported by MMA Fighting and Reddit sources confirming Aliskerov is out.

Traders must watch the official UFC announcement confirming the replacement opponent for Ferreira, who is now expected to face Jackson McVey at UFC 318 on July 19, as this dependency dictates the market's final settlement. The resolution source is official UFC information, and with the fight cancelled, the settlement window will likely trigger the "50-50" clause rather than awarding a winner, making the current crowd-implied probability a significant mispricing of the actual outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.