Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tromsø IL O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score | 41% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Tromsø IL (-1.5) | 6% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-1.5) | 1% |
| Tromsø IL (-2.5) | 1% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| O/U 3.5 | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
Market context
Tromsø IL and FC Hradec Králové are due to meet in the Europa League second qualifying round, with the first leg scheduled for Romssa Arena in Tromsø and the tie carrying the usual Europa League/Conference League crossover for the winner and loser. The market’s 6% YES price is low because the contract is not about the match result itself but about additional, separate markets being listed around the fixture, so traders are effectively pricing a narrow event path rather than the game as a whole.[1][3][5]
That makes historical comparison tricky: in comparable qualifier markets, the base case is usually a short list of standard head-to-head and totals contracts, while “more markets” only resolves higher when an exchange or sportsbook adds extra derivative questions late in the cycle. Euroranking’s previewing of the tie and its model line, which has Tromsø as only a modest favourite, points to an ordinary qualifying fixture rather than an event likely to attract a wide menu of niche bets by default.[1] In other words, 6% implies the crowd sees an unlikely but not impossible expansion in market depth before settlement.[1][5]
The main catalysts are administrative rather than sporting: line-up of official match markets, any late push from bookmakers or prediction platforms to hang player, team, or period props, and whether the fixture remains a simple two-leg qualifier with no unusual scheduling changes. Global Sports Archive lists the match date and venue, which means any adjustment to kick-off timing, competition status, or broadcast-driven market launch would be the clearest thing to watch before the settlement window closes.[3]
Methodology
We track Tromsø IL vs. FC Hradec Králové - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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