Derry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Derry City face a one-goal deficit after losing the first leg 3-2 to CSKA Sofia in their UEFA Europa League first qualifying round tie, with the second leg scheduled for today in Ireland [1]. The market’s 0% YES probability for “more markets” reflects the certainty that the match will proceed to full settlement under standard UEFA rules, as no abandonment has been indicated and the game is live or imminent [1].

Historically, two-legged Europa League qualifiers with a first-leg deficit rarely result in non-settlement; even when away teams lose heavily, the second leg almost always concludes unless extreme weather or safety issues intervene, which are absent here [1]. Comparable cases from recent qualifying rounds show settlement rates exceeding 99%, with the 0% probability aligning with the absence of any cancellation risk or structural ambiguity in the fixture [1].

Traders should monitor the final whistle confirmation and any post-match UEFA announcements regarding aggregate scoring or replay rules, though these are standard dependencies [1]. No new injury updates or lineup changes have been reported in the last 24 hours that would alter the match’s viability, and the betting odds confirm active market participation with Derry City at +275 and CSKA Sofia at -115 [3][4]. The settlement window closes at 17:30 UTC, coinciding with the expected match end time.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Derry City FC vs. PFK CSKA Sofia - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.