Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| RSC Anderlecht (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| RSC Anderlecht 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| RSC Anderlecht 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Hammarby Fotboll (-1.5) | 0% |
| RSC Anderlecht (-2.5) | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby Fotboll 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
RSC Anderlecht and Hammarby Fotboll are due to meet in UEFA Europa League qualifying, and the biggest change over the past 24-48 hours is that the market has stayed pinned at **100% YES**, leaving no visible room for a late reassessment before settlement. That makes this a very thin read on the headline event itself: the crowd is effectively saying the listed outcome is already locked in, rather than expressing a live football opinion.
That should be read against a background of mixed pre-match comparables. Independent previews have not settled on a single strong angle, with some giving Hammarby a modest home edge and others shading towards Anderlecht or a near coin-flip, which is the kind of split that usually keeps side markets noisy rather than decisive.[2][4][6] In similar qualifiers, pricing often moves most sharply once the starting XIs land, but here the settled 100% level suggests traders have already absorbed the main match context into the book.[1][3]
For the rest of the session, the practical catalysts are limited to confirmation-style items: official line-ups, any late injury or rotation note, and whether the match is still on schedule at the published kick-off time. Secondary previews are not fully consistent on venue and timing, so the official listing matters more than model pages if there is any ambiguity around settlement.[1][5] If nothing changes on team news, the market is likely to remain static simply because there is so little probability left to reprice.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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