Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Floriana FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Floriana FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Floriana FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Floriana FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Floriana FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Floriana FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Floriana FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| Floriana FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Floriana FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Floriana FC secured a 2-0 victory over Shamrock Rovers in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League qualifier on 7 July, with Robert Muric and Mustapha Jah scoring the goals [1][2]. The second leg is scheduled for today at 3:00 PM ET, and the market’s 100% YES probability reflects the certainty that additional betting markets will be offered for this match, a standard fixture in UEFA competition scheduling.
Historically, UEFA Champions League qualifiers between clubs from different tiers consistently trigger expanded market offerings, regardless of the first-leg outcome. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 qualifying rounds show that even when one side dominates the first leg, the second leg still attracts full market coverage, including over/under, correct score, and player-specific bets [3]. The 100% probability aligns with this pattern, as no UEFA qualifier has ever proceeded without supplementary markets in recent seasons.
Traders should monitor the official UEFA match centre for any pre-game announcements regarding venue changes or player availability, though these rarely affect market availability. The primary catalyst is the match’s commencement itself; once the game begins, all additional markets will activate automatically. No recent news suggests delays or cancellations, and the fixture remains on schedule as confirmed by ESPN’s match listing [1].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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