The International 2026: Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The International 2026 has not yet produced a winner, so the market is still being priced against a field that will only narrow once the event starts in mid-August. The current 8% crowd-implied probability for YES sits well below the leading contenders in recent pre-tournament modelling, which puts Team Vision, Team Yandex, Aurora Gaming, Team Falcons and BetBoom Team in the top tier rather than treating this as a single-favourite event.[1][2]

That profile is consistent with The International history: the trophy has often gone to a team already regarded as elite, but not always to the pre-event market leader, and Dota’s long-format structure leaves room for upsets across the main stage. Recent simulation-based previews have given Team Yandex roughly 22.7% to win, PARIVISION around 17.4%, Aurora Gaming 14.7% and Team Falcons 14.3%, with the rest of the field clustered much lower, which helps explain why a broader “other” outcome still carries meaningful weight in market pricing.[2][4]

For traders, the key catalysts are the final confirmed team list, the opening bracket, and any late roster or form information from official tournament channels and Dotabuff’s event coverage. Public previews also note that betting odds and predictive models are typically refreshed closer to the start of the event rather than months out, so the biggest moves usually come when the schedule, seeding and patch context are locked in.[10][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.