Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vasteraas SK (-1.5) | 83% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 2.5 | 61% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 0.5 | 58% |
| O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Vasteraas SK (-2.5) | 25% |
| Both Teams to Score | 25% |
| O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Orgryte IS (-1.5) | 4% |
| Orgryte IS (-2.5) | 4% |
| O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Västerås SK hosts Orgryte IS in the Swedish Allsvenskan on 24 July, with the market currently pricing an 83% probability that additional betting markets will be offered for this fixture. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on match day, giving traders roughly 16 hours from kick-off to assess whether supplementary markets materialise.
The 83% probability reflects standard practice in Allsvenskan coverage, where major fixtures typically attract expanded market offerings beyond the core match result and goals markets. Historical patterns across Swedish top-flight seasons show that clubs of comparable profile to both Västerås and Orgryte—mid-table sides with established supporter bases—generate sufficient trading volume to justify additional markets such as player performance props, corner totals, or card-related bets. However, the probability leaves meaningful room for scenarios where limited liquidity or scheduling constraints prevent fuller market development.
Traders should monitor whether either club announces significant team news or injury updates in the 48 hours before kick-off, as major absences can influence whether bookmakers commit to expanded offerings. The timing of the settlement window—closing at 17:00 UTC rather than after the final whistle—means markets must be formally listed well before the 13:00 UTC start time. Any delays in official fixture confirmation or late-breaking squad changes could compress the window for market deployment, potentially reducing the likelihood of additional offerings being published.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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