Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hammarby IF (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby IF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby IF O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Hammarby IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kalmar FF (-1.5) | 0% |
| Hammarby IF (-2.5) | 0% |
| Kalmar FF (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby IF O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kalmar FF O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Kalmar FF O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kalmar FF O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kalmar FF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Kalmar FF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Hammarby IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kalmar FF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Kalmar FF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Hammarby IF and Kalmar FF are set to kick off their Allsvenskan fixture at 3Arena in Stockholm today, with the match beginning at 12:00 UTC. The 100% YES probability on the “More Markets” outcome reflects that the game is live and all ancillary betting options—such as total goals, half-time results, and player-specific stats—are now active and settling in real time.
Historically, Hammarby’s dominance in this fixture frames the current certainty: they have not lost to Kalmar in their last six meetings, winning five and drawing once [3]. Their home form is particularly robust, with eight wins in the last ten matches at 3Arena, averaging 3.30 goals per game [5]. This pattern of high-scoring, home-heavy outcomes supports the expectation that multiple secondary markets will resolve with clear, data-backed results rather than voids or ambiguities.
Traders should monitor live goal timing and half-time scorelines, as these directly trigger settlements for over/under and second-half winner markets. ESPN and FOX Sports are providing live coverage with updated stats and odds, ensuring real-time data flows for all dependent markets [1][2]. No pre-match announcements or lineup changes are expected post-kickoff, as the settlement window closes immediately after the final whistle, making in-play catalysts the sole drivers of outcome resolution.
Methodology
This page reviews Hammarby IF vs. Kalmar FF - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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