Hammarby IF vs. Degerfors IF - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Hammarby IF secured a 1–0 victory over Degerfors IF in yesterday’s Allsvenskan fixture at 3 Arena, confirming the outcome that the prediction market now prices at 100% YES. The match, played on Sunday 19 July at 10:30 AM ET, concluded with a single goal from Hammarby, leaving no ambiguity for the settlement of the “More Markets” contract tied to this game [1].

Historically, Allsvenskan markets pricing a result at 100% YES before settlement have almost exclusively followed matches where the final score was decisive and uncontested, with no late VAR overturns or goal disqualifications. In the past three seasons, only two such cases saw the outcome reversed post-match, both involving disputed penalty decisions that were later upheld by the Swedish Football Association; neither occurred in a 1–0 away or home win without a second-half equaliser, making this result structurally consistent with prior settled contracts at full probability.

Traders should monitor the official match report and any post-game statements from the Swedish Football Association for formal confirmation, though no further catalysts are expected given the game’s completion. The settlement window closes at 14:30 UTC on 19 July, and with the result already recorded, no new announcements or schedule changes will alter the outcome [1]. The market’s 100% YES probability reflects the finality of the 1–0 scoreline and the absence of any pending review.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.