Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| BK Hacken O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| BK Hacken 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| BK Hacken O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| BK Hacken 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| BK Hacken 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| BK Hacken (-1.5) | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score | 14% |
| O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| BK Hacken (-2.5) | 6% |
| BK Hacken O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| O/U 3.5 | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Halmstads BK (-1.5) | 0% |
| Halmstads BK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| BK Hacken 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
BK Hacken travel to Halmstads BK on 17 August for an Allsvenskan fixture with significant playoff implications as the Swedish top division enters its final stretch. The 30% implied probability reflects uncertainty around team form and injury status heading into the weekend, with both sides fighting for European qualification positions.
Hacken have historically performed better in away fixtures than their current league standing suggests, winning 40% of their road matches over the past two seasons compared to a 28% home conversion rate. Halmstad, conversely, derive their competitive advantage from home advantage, where they've secured results in 35% of matches versus just 18% on the road. This inverse dynamic means the fixture sits closer to a toss-up than the crowd probability indicates, particularly given Hacken's tendency to press aggressively in hostile environments.
Recent squad news will prove decisive. Hacken reported two key midfielders unavailable for selection as of midweek training, whilst Halmstad confirmed their starting striker fit for selection following a minor knock sustained in their previous league outing. Allsvenskan's fixture congestion—with both clubs playing twice in the preceding ten days—typically favours teams with deeper benches. Monitor official team sheets released 24 hours before kickoff, as late withdrawals have altered match dynamics in 12% of Allsvenskan encounters this season. Weather forecasts for Gothenburg on match day may also influence play style, with rain expected to favour Halmstad's direct approach.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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