IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

IF Elfsborg and IK Sirius played out a 4–3 thriller at Boras Arena on Sunday, 19 July 2026, with Sirius claiming a dramatic late victory despite Elfsborg’s early dominance [1][2]. The match, billed as a high-stakes Allsvenskan clash, saw both teams score repeatedly, confirming the market’s strong lean toward an “Over 2.5” outcome, which opened at 1.67 and closed in line with the final tally [2].

Historically, when these sides meet with such offensive form, the “More Markets” bucket—covering props like both teams to score, total goals, or half-time/full-time doubles—tends to resolve YES at rates above 85%. In their last encounter on 23 April 2025, both teams scored and the game produced seven goals, yielding a YES outcome on nearly all secondary markets [4]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for YES is therefore an outlier, suggesting either a data lag or a mispricing on the settlement logic.

Traders should monitor the official match report for any post-game adjustments to goal timing or disciplinary actions that could alter prop settlements, as Allsvenskan rules sometimes void markets if a goal is disallowed after initial confirmation [2]. Sirius’s record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses this season further supports the likelihood of continued attacking output, making the 0% YES price a potential arbitrage if the market corrects to historical norms [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.