Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Degerfors IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Degerfors IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Djurgardens IF (-1.5) | 23% |
| Both Teams to Score | 21% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 0.5 | 20% |
| O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Djurgardens IF (-2.5) | 4% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Degerfors IF (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 3.5 | 2% |
| O/U 4.5 | 2% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 1.5 | 2% |
| Degerfors IF (-1.5) | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Degerfors IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Degerfors IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Degerfors IF travel to face Djurgardens IF in an Allsvenskan fixture on 25 July, with the match kicking off at 09:00 ET. The 1% implied probability reflects extremely low odds on the "more markets" outcome, suggesting traders expect either minimal additional betting options or that the primary market will settle before supplementary offerings materialise.
Allsvenskan fixtures routinely generate extended market coverage once fixtures are confirmed and team sheets published. Historical precedent shows that mid-table and lower-tier Swedish league matchups typically attract secondary markets—including player performance props, corner counts, and card markets—within 48 hours of kickoff. Degerfors' recent form and Djurgardens' standing in the table will determine market depth; higher-profile clubs consistently trigger broader market proliferation. The 1% probability suggests either low anticipated trading volume or scepticism that additional markets will launch before settlement.
Traders should monitor official Allsvenskan scheduling confirmations and any late-notice fixture changes through 24 July. Sportsbook decisions on market expansion depend partly on pre-match team news and injury announcements, typically released 24–48 hours before kickoff. Djurgardens' fixture congestion in late July may influence whether operators prioritise secondary markets for this particular match. Regulatory or technical delays at the host platform could also suppress supplementary market creation, though such instances remain uncommon for established league fixtures.
Methodology
We track Degerfors IF vs. Djurgardens IF - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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