St Johnstone FC vs. Kilmarnock FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

St Johnstone and Kilmarnock are due to meet in the Scottish Premiership today, and the market’s 44% implied probability for YES sits in line with a genuinely mixed pre-match picture rather than a clear favourite. With the settlement window ending at kick-off, the main shift in the last 24-48 hours is simply that lineups and late availability now matter more than broader form assumptions.

Historically, this is a fixture that has often been tight enough to keep “more markets” interest alive. Recent head-to-head results have split both ways, with Kilmarnock winning 3-1 in February 2025 and St Johnstone winning 1-0 in November 2024, while earlier meetings included a 3-0 away win for St Johnstone and a 2-0 win for Kilmarnock.[12] Across longer samples, St Johnstone have also held a narrow edge in total wins, but the overall scoring record between the sides is close, which is consistent with a market that prices uncertainty rather than dominance.[10][15]

For traders, the immediate catalysts are team news, confirmation of the starting XIs, and any late injury or suspension updates before the 9:00 AM ET start.[2][7] St Johnstone’s most recent competitive run in the results shown is a strong Championship spell, while Kilmarnock’s latest listed Premiership run included several high-scoring wins, so any adjustment to attacking personnel could move expectations quickly.[5][7] Sky Sports also shows the teams have produced balanced shot numbers in their recent statistical profile, which suggests the market may react more to personnel than to the broad historical numbers alone.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.