Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Porto O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Porto 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Porto (-1.5) | 1% |
| SCU Torreense (-1.5) | 1% |
| FC Porto (-2.5) | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| FC Porto O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SCU Torreense O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SCU Torreense O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| FC Porto 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SCU Torreense 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| SCU Torreense 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| FC Porto 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| FC Porto 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SCU Torreense 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| SCU Torreense 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Porto (-3.5) | 1% |
| SCU Torreense (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Porto O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SCU Torreense O/U 0.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Porto and SCU Torreense have already played the Portuguese Super Cup, and the latest development in the last 24–48 hours is that Porto did indeed edge it 1-0, with Victor Froholdt’s first-half header settling the final. That result is consistent with the market’s pre-match 1% YES pricing for a “more markets” outcome: it signals that any extra selections beyond the core match result were always being priced as longshots, with the main game likely to be decided narrowly rather than through a high-event script.[2][3]
Historically, this was a classic giant-versus-upstart final rather than a balanced league fixture. Porto arrived as the clear favourite, backed by far greater Super Cup experience and trophy depth, while Torreense were framing their appearance as an outsider story after becoming the first second-division club to win the Taça de Portugal.[3][5][7] Comparable Porto–Torreense meetings have tended to be controlled rather than chaotic, and pre-match models also pointed towards a tight scoreline, with 1-0 and 2-0 among the likeliest Porto outcomes.[11]
For traders, the key catalysts were always team-sheet confirmation, any late injury or rotation news, and whether Torreense could keep the game level deep into the second half, since that is what would most likely have opened up card, corner, and late-goal angles.[3][7] The fixture was set at the Estádio Cidade de Coimbra with a 3:15 p.m. ET kick-off, and the market only had a narrow settlement window after that, so the relevant dependency was whether official line-ups and live match state supported a more settled, low-variance contest rather than an end-to-end cup tie.[3][7][12]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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