North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International

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Market context

The North American Regional Qualifier for The International 2026 is currently underway, with matches scheduled to conclude today, yet the crowd-implied probability of a North American team qualifying stands at 0%. This stark figure reflects a realisation that the region’s top contenders have already been eliminated or failed to secure a spot in the closed qualifier, leaving no viable path to the main event. The qualifier cycle, which began with open qualifiers in early June, has culminated in a closed regional event where only one team can advance to TI’s Swiss-style Group Stage in Shanghai.

Historically, North America has struggled to secure TI slots through regional qualifiers, often relying on direct invites or performance in prior seasons. In recent years, the region has seen only sporadic success, with teams like Team Falcons and Tundra Esports dominating European slots while North American representation dwindled. The 0% probability aligns with this trend, as the region’s best teams have either missed the qualifier cycle or been outperformed by stronger international contenders. Comparable cases from 2024 and 2025 show similar outcomes, where North America failed to advance a single team through regional qualifiers.

Traders should monitor the official resolution of the qualifier, which will be confirmed by August 15, 2026, if the Group Stage participants list is not published. Key catalysts include the final match results from today’s qualifier and any announcements regarding direct invites or tie-breaker rules. Recent news from GosuGamers confirms that only seven teams earned direct invites, with none from North America, further cementing the region’s exclusion from TI 2026. The market will resolve to “Other” if the qualifier is cancelled or if the participant list is delayed beyond the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.