Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 99% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) | 89% |
| O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| Lillestrøm SK O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| Lillestrøm SK O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Lillestrøm SK O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FK Bodø/Glimt 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Lillestrøm SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Lillestrøm SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score | 22% |
| O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| Lillestrøm SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Lillestrøm SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Lillestrøm SK (-1.5) | 0% |
| Lillestrøm SK (-2.5) | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Bodø/Glimt meet Lillestrøm with the market already pricing a near-certain **YES** on the “more markets” line, and the last 24–48 hours have mainly confirmed the same directional read rather than produced a fresh shock. Public score and match pages show the fixture is live on 31 July, while preview material has Glimt sitting top of the Eliteserien and Lillestrøm in the upper half, a combination that tends to keep derivative market interest high because late team news can still move totals, cards and player-specific props.[1][19]
Historically, this pairing has been one of the more open domestic match-ups. FootyStats puts the head-to-head at 10 Bodø/Glimt wins, 6 Lillestrøm wins and 5 draws across 21 meetings, with 40 goals to 28 in Glimt’s favour.[5] Other databases broadly agree that Glimt have had the edge, but the draw rate is not dominant and recent meetings have often produced multiple goals, which helps explain why the crowd is comfortable with a very high probability that additional markets will be posted or settled around the game.[4][8]
For traders, the main catalysts are the usual late line-up and schedule dependencies: confirmed starting XIs, any rotation from Bodø/Glimt’s congested summer programme, and whether Lillestrøm can carry over their stronger away form into a high-tempo away fixture.[19] SportsMole notes Glimt have won four straight league games and kept clean sheets in that run, while Lillestrøm are coming off a defeat after beating KFUM and winning away at Fredrikstad, so any late team news that alters attacking intent or defensive stability could matter more for the exact shape of the market than for the broad yes/no view.[19]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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