Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| New England Revolution O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New England Revolution 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| New England Revolution (-1.5) | 0% |
| Toronto FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| New England Revolution (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Toronto FC and New England Revolution meet on 15 August in Major League Soccer's regular season. The fixture carries playoff implications for both clubs, with Toronto currently holding a stronger position in the Eastern Conference standings. No significant roster changes or injury announcements have emerged in the past 48 hours that would alter pre-match expectations, though squad availability updates typically arrive within 24 hours of kickoff.
The 0% probability assigned to "more markets" reflects the binary nature of this settlement condition: either additional betting markets for this specific match will be created before the window closes, or they will not. Historical precedent shows that MLS matches on established platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel routinely generate supplementary prop markets beyond standard match-winner and total-goals offerings. The question hinges on whether this particular fixture qualifies for expanded market coverage, which depends partly on anticipated liquidity and platform prioritisation rather than match circumstances.
Traders should monitor official MLS fixture confirmations and any last-minute scheduling changes that might affect broadcast prominence. Platform announcements typically arrive 48–72 hours before matches. The settlement window extends to 23:30 UTC on match day, providing a narrow window for market expansion decisions. Recent MLS coverage patterns suggest mid-table matchups receive standard market sets unless one club carries significant injury concerns or playoff-race urgency that elevates audience interest.
Methodology
This page reviews Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution - More Markets on Prediction Today
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →