San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC

Platform comparison

Market context

San Jose Earthquakes host Orlando City SC in an MLS fixture scheduled for Wednesday night, with the market pricing San Jose at just 10% to win. The most recent real-world shift is that the game has already been played and, according to match reports, Orlando won 1-0 at PayPal Park, which makes the live market setup largely a reflection of settlement timing rather than sporting uncertainty.[4]

That 10% figure sits far below what a normal home-side price would usually imply in MLS, where even modest home advantage tends to keep win probabilities well above that level. The nearest comparable case in the supplied results is also a low-scoring San Jose-Orlando meeting, a 1-1 draw that showed how these sides can end up compressed into a narrow margins game rather than a high-event one.[2] Fox Sports’ pre-match pricing also points to Orlando as the stronger side, with San Jose listed at a much shorter price than Orlando, consistent with a visiting team edge in the market.[3]

For traders, the main catalyst now is whether any official competition or bookmaking feed updates the status to completed and locks in the result before the settlement window closes at 02:30 UTC. Because the match report already shows a final score and the ESPN listing tracks the same fixture, the remaining watchpoint is operational: confirmation that the market’s settlement source recognises the finished game, rather than any on-pitch development.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track San Jose Earthquakes vs. Orlando City SC across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.