Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
32% | 68% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
32% | 68% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 32% |
| New York Yankees | 13% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 9% |
| Seattle Mariners | 7% |
| Atlanta Braves | 7% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 6% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 5% |
| Boston Red Sox | 4% |
| Chicago Cubs | 4% |
| Chicago White Sox | 3% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 2% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2% |
| Detroit Tigers | 2% |
| Texas Rangers | 2% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 2% |
| Minnesota Twins | 1% |
| Houston Astros | 1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1% |
| Miami Marlins | 1% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1% |
| Colorado Rockies | 1% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0% |
| Athletics | 0% |
| New York Mets | 0% |
| Washington Nationals | 0% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0% |
| San Diego Padres | 0% |
| San Francisco Giants | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the overwhelming favourites to win the 2026 World Series, having shortened their odds to +180–+200 since the All-Star break, while the New York Yankees trail at +550 despite injury setbacks in the AL East[1][2]. The crowd-implied probability of 13% for a specific team in this market sits well below the Dodgers’ bookmaker-implied probability of roughly 33–35%, suggesting a notable divergence between retail sentiment and professional pricing[2][8].
Historically, a single team holding an implied probability above 30% in a 30-team field is rare; the Dodgers’ position mirrors the Yankees’ dominance from 1998–2000, the only modern three-peat, and their current +200 odds represent the shortest preseason favourite line since at least 1985[2][13]. No other MLB team currently holds single-digit implied odds, with the Yankees and Mariners the only contenders under +1000, reinforcing the Dodgers’ tier-of-their-one status[2][13].
Traders should monitor the August 1 trade deadline, when buyer and seller status crystallises and roster changes can sharply alter futures pricing[7]. Key catalysts include Shohei Ohtani’s NL MVP trajectory, the health of the Dodgers’ pitching staff, and any further Yankees injury updates affecting Aaron Judge’s availability[2]. The World Series is scheduled to begin 23 October 2026, with a best-of-seven format concluding by 1 November, aligning with the market’s 31 October settlement window[7].
Methodology
We track MLB World Series Champion 2026 across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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