Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians played their MLB matchup on Friday, 26 June at Progressive Field in Cleveland, with the game now completed and the Mariners having lost. The market’s current 100% YES probability for the Mariners reflects a post-game resolution where the outcome is settled, not a live prediction. In similar cases where a game finishes before settlement, markets lock immediately once official stats are confirmed, eliminating any ambiguity about the winner. This mirrors past MLB resolution patterns where a completed game at a neutral or home venue results in instant finalisation, with no further trading activity once the result is official.

Traders should note that the only catalysts now are the official confirmation of the final score and any potential postponement or cancellation notices, though neither applies here as the game has concluded. The pre-game odds favoured the Guardians slightly, with DraftKings listing them at -112 on the moneyline, and Rotoworld Bet explicitly recommending a play on the Guardians for the moneyline, which aligns with the actual result [2]. The Mariners’ poor run-line record (31-51) and the Guardians’ stronger home performance (19-17) were key dependencies that influenced the outcome, and these factors remain relevant for understanding why the market resolved as it did. No further announcements or schedule changes will affect this settled market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.