Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

The Pittsburgh Pirates face the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Monday, 20 July, with the game tipped at 7:05pm ET. Despite the Yankees holding a superior 55–44 record and a +85 run differential, the crowd-implied probability for a Pirates win sits at just 7%, a stark contrast to most betting models which favour the home side only modestly at -118 moneyline[5].

Historically, such a low implied probability for a visiting team with a 52–48 record against a top-tier Yankees squad is rare, yet recent analyst projections contradict the market’s extreme pessimism. Multiple models, including DraftKings and Rotoworld, project a Pirates victory with scores of 5–3 and 4–3 respectively, citing pitcher Ashcraft as the matchup’s decisive factor[1][2]. This divergence suggests the 7% figure may reflect liquidity imbalances rather than genuine win probability, mirroring past instances where underdogs with strong pitching neutralised superior run differentials.

Traders should monitor Ashcraft’s confirmed starting status and any late-injury updates to both lineups, as both teams are missing key bats ahead of the game[4]. The total leans under 7.5 runs due to these depleted lineups, which could further suppress Yankees offensive output[4]. With ESPN Analytics assigning the Yankees a 53.6% win chance versus 46.4% for the Pirates, the market’s 7% pricing appears significantly detached from statistical consensus[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.