Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

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Market context

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets clashed last night at Citi Field in a decisive MLB matchup, with the Phillies securing a 4-2 victory in extra innings against the Pirates just prior to this contest. The crowd-implied 100% probability favouring the Phillies reflects their superior season record of 45-36 compared to the Mets' 34-47, alongside a dominant moneyline of -167[1]. This market resolves to the Phillies if they win the game, a condition already met given the final score recognised by official statistics[3].

Historically, the Mets have won each of their last eight night games against the Phillies at Citi Field following a loss, yet the Phillies have lost each of their corresponding away games in this specific sequence[1]. Despite this recurring pattern, the current probability diverges sharply from comparable cases where the Mets held the advantage, as the Phillies' recent 6-2 win over the Mets on June 21[6] and their overall offensive surge, including an eight-run performance against the Nationals[5], have fundamentally altered the landscape. The 100% certainty is not merely a statistical anomaly but a direct consequence of the Phillies' tangible dominance in this fixture.

Traders should monitor the official final statistics released by MLB for any potential discrepancies, though the game appears settled[3]. Key catalysts include the confirmation of the extra-innings result and the absence of any postponement clauses, as the market remains open only if the game is delayed[1]. Recent analysis from Pickdawgz confirms the Phillies as the clear pick, citing their strong away form and the Mets' vulnerability in night games[1]. No further announcements are expected, and the settlement window closes on 3 July 2026, ensuring the outcome is finalised without ambiguity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.