New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees face the Boston Red Sox today at Fenway Park in a 1:10 PM ET MLB game, with the crowd-implied probability of a Yankees win sitting at just 7%. This starkly low figure reflects the Yankees’ recent struggles in this series, having lost the first two games of the four-game set to the Red Sox, who dominated with a 6–1 victory in the opener on June 26. The Red Sox, despite a poor overall season record of 34–46, have shown surprising resilience at home, while the Yankees, at 48–33, are underperforming relative to their standing, particularly in away games where they hold a 26–18 record.

Historically, such a low probability for a superior team like the Yankees in an early-season matchup against a weaker opponent is rare but not unprecedented; comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show that when a top-tier team loses the opening games of a series, market sentiment can swing dramatically, often leading to a rebound in the third game. Traders should watch for any late pitching announcements, particularly whether the Yankees deploy their ace starter or a backup, as this dependency heavily influences the outcome. Additionally, weather conditions—currently partly cloudy with 76°F and 6 mph winds from the right field—could affect play, and any sudden changes in the starting lineup, as noted in recent ESPN coverage [3], will be critical catalysts to monitor before the game concludes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.