MLB: Most Home Runs (Team)

Platform comparison

Market context

Team home-run totals for the 2026 MLB season are now being priced with the Dodgers, Orioles and Yankees as clear favourites, leaving any other club at a 2% implied chance to top the list. In the last 24–48 hours, odds have tightened slightly on Aaron Judge’s 42‑home‑run projection and Shohei Ohtani’s 52‑home‑run outlook, reinforcing the Dodgers’ and Yankees’ dominance in the power race [1][4]. This compression mirrors the 2024 and 2025 seasons, where the team with the league’s leading individual hitter also finished first in team home runs, a pattern that has held in 18 of the last 20 years [1].

Historically, only three teams outside the top‑three power clubs have ever led the league in home runs, and each case involved a breakout season from multiple 30‑plus hitters rather than a single superstar [6]. The Orioles are projected to become the third team in history with five 30‑plus home‑run hitters, a structural advantage that makes any outsider’s 2% probability look thin unless a major roster shock occurs [6]. Traders should watch for mid‑July injury updates on Judge and Ohtani, as well as any late‑season trade‑deadline moves that add power bats to under‑performing lineups [4].

Key catalysts include the July 30 trade deadline, where teams may acquire corner‑infield power, and the August 31 deadline for playoff‑contending clubs to finalise rosters [4]. Any announcement of a long‑term injury to Judge or Ohtani would immediately shift the market, while a surprise breakout from a young hitter such as Nick Kurtz or Gunnar Henderson could alter the odds for their respective clubs [7]. The market will settle on 11 October 2026, with tie‑breakers based on runs scored, then run differential, then alphabetical order [market description].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.